B3:  Project Risk Quantification

Saturday - Sunday, June 10 - 11, 2017 (1.5 DAYS)
1.2 CEUs

$1150 Member / $1300 Non-member

Description
The course starts with learning the basics of risk management (RM) and dealing with uncertainty in investment and bid decisions and project control (i.e. the context.) Fundamentals such as terminology and statistics are covered. Attendees will then learn how to elicit information about risks and use it to perform integrated, probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis for contingency, reserves and escalation in a step-by-step manner in accordance with the text (“Project Risk Quantification”: the book will be provided to all attendees) including exercises to reinforce the lessons. The content is consistent with AACE Recommended Practices where applicable.

Quantification at different project phases is covered, including capturing historical data to improve future risk analyses. In addition, the attendees will learn about landmark empirical research, example cases, tips and rules-of-thumb and watch-outs. Attendees will also be provided with practice guidelines, tools and templates to help put the practices into action at their workplace.

Content:  Intermediate

Key Learning Objectives

• Optimize outcomes by realistically addressing risk in a practical way
• Discover practical methods supported by research and AACE RPs
• Explore method variations by risk type and by project phase
• Gain insight into empirical industry research on accuracy and methods
• Transform your project results using integrated cost and schedule methods
• Strengthen your capital investment decision making and project control
• Formulate approaches that work in your owner or contractor processes
• Build your Decision and Risk Management skills, knowledge and competency
• Expand your risk management capabilities from qualitative to quantitative

Agenda
DAY 1: INTRODUCTION, FUNDAMENTALS and BASIC METHODS
 Introduction to Project Risk Management Process (60 mins)
o Definitions, Terminology, Taxonomy
o Introduction to Probability and Statistics
o Accuracy; Industry Research Findings
 Investment/Bidding Decision Making Process (90 mins)
o Phase‐Gate Processes and Classification
o Decision Models and Risk Quantification
 Risk Quantification Introduction (90 mins)
o Principles of Risk Quantification & Methods
o Alignment and Integration of Methods
 Methods‐Basic (120 mins)
o Systemic Risks & Parametric Modeling w/exercise
o Specific Risks & Expected Value w/MCS w/exercise

DAY 2: METHODS & APPLICATION
 Methods‐Extended (90 mins)
o Escalation and Exchange
o Program and Portfolio Analysis
o Tipping Point Analysis
 Supporting Practices (90 mins)
o Communicating Results; Making a Difference
o Project Historical Databases Considering Risks
o Organizing for Effective Risk Quantification

John HollmannInstructor:  John Hollmann, PE, CCP CEP DRMP FAACE, Hon. Life 
John Hollmann is the owner of Validation Estimating, LLC. He works with capital program senior managers and project leaders to improve practices in cost estimating, project control and cost/schedule risk quantification. John regularly reviews major international project estimates and conducts risk analyses in support of investment decision making. Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written numerous papers and was lead author of the AACE International (AACE) text; the Total Cost Management Framework. John is an Honorary Life Member of AACE and recipient of their Award of Merit. He also led the development of the AACE Decision and Risk Management Professional certification. Prior to founding Validation Estimating, Mr. Hollmann led the Cost Engineering Committee (CEC) metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc. John is a registered Professional Engineer and, via AACE, a Certified Cost Professional, a Cost Estimating Professional and Decision and Risk Management Professional.

Professional Development & Technical Resources