Technical Program Abstracts

(CSC) Cost and Schedule Control

NOTE: Program Subject to Change


(CSC-3107) The Power of Projections: Innovative Schedule Forecasting Techniques

Author(s)/Presenters(s): Ken Carrico; Eric Dembert, PE; Mike Hollowell; Jeff Johannsen; Jesse Lund, CCP PSP

Time/Room: MON 10:15-11:15/Bayside C

Abstract:

“When will it finish, and how will we get there?” These are the most common questions on any construction project, yet the most challenging to answer.

Schedule forecasting is critical. The ability to accurately project progress can enable frequent benchmarking and identify periods when production deviates from the plan. There are two common approaches to schedule forecasting — Critical Path Method (CPM) and Earned Value Management (EVM) — but each has its own drawbacks. CPM provides a clear path for the project, but may be subjective and biased. Conversely, EVM techniques can be applied to estimate the end date, but may be overly optimistic.

To increase confidence in forward-looking schedules, this paper explores three quantitative and practical methods that provide both a clear end date and an outline of future progress:

•             Method 1: Maintaining Average Production

•             Method 2: Modeling Performance Against a Standard S-Curve

•             Method 3: Applying Baseline with and without Inefficiencies for an Expected Performance Band

Different scenarios (based on the practical limits of available data) will guide method selection. Additionally, this paper will describe an actual use case in which the methods were applied and benefits were realized. The goal of this paper is to provide project managers with the necessary tools to make confident decisions and projections without relying on CPM updates or an EVM program.

 

(CSC-3132) The Clear Flow Matrix: An Effective Production Control Technique Using Crew Level Planning

Author(s)/Presenters(s): Augusto Tiezzi; David Lott, PE; Wayne Lott; Dr. John D. Borcherding; Dr. William J. O'Brien

Time/Room: MON 11:30-12:30/Bayside B

Abstract:

Cost overruns and schedule delays are commonplace in the building construction industry and often result from poor production management and control in the field.  Production management and control systems in construction should provide a framework which is intuitive and visually evident for all levels of management and trade supervisors. This paper presents the clear flow matrix (CFMx), a novel production management and control technique for building construction.  The CFMx consists of a matrix integration of the trade activities and locations wherein time and workflow rhythm are represented through the progress of a unique balanced workfront, which balances client completion demand and trade contractor operations efficiency as trade work progresses through the building areas.  Work sampling analysis (WSA) conducted on three CFMx building projects including a hospital, a school and a multi-family development, confirmed the effectiveness achieved by the CFMx through direct work ratios exceeding reported industry averages.  Questionnaire/interviews of trade supervisors and managers from these projects verified that the matrix-based tool is visually evident, intuitive and easily implemented in the field without the need for extensive knowledge of scheduling concepts or training.

 

(CSC-3199) (Presentation Only) MS100 Modular Reporting Framework

Author(s)/Presenters(s): Aditya Arya, PSP

Time/Room: SUN 4:00-5:00/Bayside A

Abstract:

“MS100 Modular Reporting Framework” is a new framework for schedule & cost reporting at Project, Program, Portfolio, and Enterprises Levels. This framework brings data, and data structure centric approach in project controls. The primary enables of this framework are standardization of data, modular structure of data, and replication of data.

One of the features of this framework is that a set of predefined, specialized, reporting milestones are embedded in distinct schedule WBS modules.

Throughout the schedule WBS, parent child relationships are maintained between WBS modules, and their WBS sub-modules using these specialized reporting milestones. Hence the concept of "modular". In theory as well as in practice, an infinite number of modules can be assembled together to form “parent modules”, and so forth.

An advantage of this framework is that it merges index and metric functionality for reporting at Project, Program, Portfolio, and Enterprises Levels.

The framework initiates a new methodical approach to providing Activity IDs to milestones. These Activity IDs are standardized. The objective is to create a set of specialized milestones which could be utilized industry wide as “standard indices” for reporting. For example, MS1 represents Project Start, MS100 represents Project Finish.

This framework readily provides data for benchmarking, trend analysis, and comparison of project progress for programs / portfolios. This framework undertakes a lean approach to the forensic scheduling/ construction dispute resolution process. This framework provides project progress in predefined ‘steps’ – simplifying executive reporting.

 

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