Technical Program Abstracts

(CSC) Cost and Schedule Control

(CSC-3066) The Value Add Of Enterprise Project Performance Software

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Harlan Doherty

Abstract:

High quality project forecasts that utilize the strength of industry leading enterprise project performance software and feedback driven performance improvement actions add value to the organization by providing a clear view of total project cost relative to budget.  Accurate project cash flow projections, and risk analysis using Monte Carlo on cost and schedule allows project teams to confidently move forward with project funding actions on large scale capital expansion projects.  The organization is better able to make intelligent decisions regarding future project funding actions when it has the benefit of a clear picture regarding where the project currently stands, and how future project cash flow projections will impact overall return on dollars invested in the project.

(CSC-3077) Project Duration and Resource Allocation for New-Tech Project based on Construction Efficiency Method

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Yi Zhao; Chunfu Xu

Abstract:

Duration evaluation and resource allocation are important procedures in project management. With the application of many new technologies in projects, the experience of same type project has been insufficient to provide support for duration evaluation and resource allocation. This paper proposes a new technology project construction efficiency transformation model based on the construction efficiency method, which combines the characteristics of the project itself, the region of site and the construction team differences. In this case, the construction duration of the new technology project can be evaluated. At the same time, combine the normal distribution curve and the construction efficiency method. Obtain the dynamic supply curve of resources by measuring the demand of resource. Finally, a case with human resources in different status is been analyzed. A scientific human resource allocation plan will be made according to the result to support the schedule engineer and decision makers.

(CSC-3091) How Cost Information is Integrated to Schedule Information

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Manesh Alias; Varghese Daniel

Abstract:

Experience the journey and multiple dimensions of cost management on an organization from C-Levels to Project Cost Engineer. Learn from Mr Manesh Alias and Mr Varghese Daniel how cost management personas facilitate fund transitions from Budgets, Commitments, Certification and Realization Phase and how cost information is integrated to a project schedule information. See how the relationship between Cost and Schedule revolutionize your decision making process.

(CSC-3107) The Power of Projections: Innovative Schedule Forecasting Techniques

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Eric Dembert; Jeff Johannsen; Jesse Lund, CCP PSP

Abstract:

When will it finish and how will we get there? Probably the most common, yet most challenging questions on any construction project. The ability to accurately forecast future progress enables day-for-day benchmarking to clearly identify periods when production deviates from the plan. Critical Path Method (CPM) schedules provide a clear path, but may be subjective and inaccurate, whereas Earned Value Management (EVM) practices can estimate the end date without the route to get there.

In order to increase confidence in forward-looking schedules, this paper explores three quantitative and objective methods that provide a clear end date and outline of future progress:

•  Method 1: Maintaining Average Production

•  Method 2: Modeling Performance Against a Standard S-Curve

•  Method 3: Applying Baseline With and Without Inefficiencies for an Expected Performance Band

The selection of which method to use will be guided by different scenarios based on practical limits of available data. Additionally, this paper will describe an actual use case in which the methods were applied and the benefits that were realized. The goal of this paper is to provide project and program owners with the necessary tools to re-instill confident decision making and projections.

(CSC-3114) Field-Level Change-Order Management Enhancement

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Neil D. Opfer, CCP CEP PSP FAACE

Abstract:

Oftentimes, construction projects are overrun with change orders to the original scope of work.  Very few construction projects are completed without change orders.  Given this, it is the exception when a construction contracts does not include provisions for handling change orders.  Research by this writer has shown that failure to recognize and properly handle change orders on projects is a key reason for profit fade.

Therefore field personnel need enhanced procedures for recognizing changes and then dealing with these changes to comply with the contract.  There are times when changes to original design drawings seem to be purposely not called out but these same changes will significantly increase the line item’s work scope.  Field personnel can take advantage of technology such as electronic document analysis to spot changes in plans that otherwise would have been missed until it was too late in the process.  Enhancements must also be made in field documentation of actual costs involved in the change order which can also benefit through recent technology advances.  Field level management, particularly, first-line supervisors, often are ill-suited to the paperwork involved in change order management.  Corrections for these above issues and others are essential and the focus.

(CSC-3116) Activity Duration Index: A Leading Indicator for Project Schedule Control

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Dr. Mohamed El-Mehalawi

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple indicator for activities in-progress that reflect the activity performance against its original duration. The indicator is based on the original duration and current estimate-at-completion duration. The indicator is then used to predict the number of time units remaining and the finish date of the activity. Based on the predicted finish date, total float and free float are calculated. If the predicted float is zero or less, then it is concluded that the activity will become critical if the project team does not make a recovery plan to finish it before consuming all floats. If the activity is originally critical, then it will impact the overall project schedule. This indicator helps also on identifying near critical activities on the schedule.

This indicator has been implemented on a few industrial projects as a leading indicator and proves very helpful tool for the project management team to avoid delaying major milestones. This indicator is particularly valuable in outage and turnarounds, remote installation like offshore work, and equipment startup.

(CSC-3117) Public Infrastructure Budget Management – A Dynamic Information Systems Approach

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Amara Siemens; Christina Cheng

Abstract:

This paper will share the experiences of the King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Wastewater Treatment Division (WTD), and highlight its successes using an information systems approach to budgeting its complex regional capital infrastructure serving 1.7 million people in a 420-square-mile area in Washington State that includes the City of Seattle.

As financial stewards of public funds, it is essential to ensure proper funding for the life of a project; assign appropriate resources to manage project requirements; and collect information as projects are executed to inform and forecast schedule and budget on future projects. Sound budgeting and forecasting processes allow for continuous capital portfolio, program and project financing; holds project teams accountable to scope, schedule, budget management; and improves the ability to adequately manage resources.

WTD’s integrated information systems approach provides flexibility to track cost and schedule history, group projects by similarities for future project planning, and assist in better overall portfolio fiscal management. Benefits of this integrated information systems approach is better communication between management and project teams, achieving alignment to organizational objectives as they are applied or implemented at the project level, and assist in monitoring project risks as they relate to project contingency budget.

(CSC-3124) Disruption Quantification in Small and Medium EPC Projects:  A System Dynamics Model

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Michael Mac Guinness

Abstract:

Change is a fact of life in EPC projects however change impacts (cost, schedule and productivity) are usually estimated in isolation, there is no generally accepted way to assess the cumulative effects of multiple changes either before or after the events. This presents huge problems for small and medium sized contractors.

This paper describes the design, build and testing of a prototype System Dynamics model intended to assist project management deal with the complex interaction of changes on productivity and quality and to forecast their cost and schedule impacts and evaluate ways to mitigate or avoid them.

Starting with the Rework Cycle with feedback, a System Dynamics model was developed.  The model was expanded to include multiple feedback loops. This complexity is added to capture the interaction and feedback of timing and magnitude of changes and their effects on productivity, quality, cost and schedule. We partnered with a  local contractor to test the model on current projects with encouraging results.

(CSC-3131) Implementation of Change Management in Project Schedules

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Myrtle Engram; Tammy Frenette; Luis O. Figueroa

Abstract:

Changes to the project scope of work and/or execution plan require adequate evaluation to both cost and schedule and is a critical step for change management.  In particular, it is essential to assess these changes due to the risks exposed to both contractors and owners based on contract terms (lump sum, incentives, or liquidated damages).  Although the construction industry is consistent with mitigation plans and associated costs, there is inconsistent work processes and limited knowledge on implementing schedule changes on large, complex projects. This paper will present a comprehensive look at concepts, criteria for types of changes, and work process (basis for estimating impact, mitigation and response plans depending on change ownership, and documentation). It will also provide proposed methods for effectual and pragmatic implementation of changes after approval. The topics will be supported with examples, flow charts, and graphical charts.  This paper is directed to peers, project controls planners and schedulers interested in schedule change management.

(CSC-3132) The Clear Flow Matrix: An Effective Production Control Technique Using Crew Level Planning

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Augusto Tiezzi; Dr. William J. O'Brien; Dr. John D. Borcherding; David Lott; Wayne Lott

Abstract:

Cost overruns and schedule delays are commonplace in the building construction industry and often result from poor production management and control in the field.  Production management and control systems in construction should provide a framework that is intuitive and visually evident for all levels of management and trade supervisors. This paper presents the Clear Flow Matrix (CFMx), a novel production management and control technique for building construction.  The CFMx consists of a matrix integration of the trade activities and locations wherein time and workflow rhythm are represented through the progress of a unique Balanced Workfront, which balances client completion demand and trade contractor operations efficiency as trade work progresses through the building areas.  Work Sampling Analysis (WSA) conducted on three CFMx building projects including a hospital, a school and a multi-family development, confirmed the effectiveness achieved by the CFMx through direct work ratios exceeding reported industry averages.  Questionnaire/interviews of trade supervisors and managers from these projects verified that the matrix-based tool is visually evident, intuitive and easily implemented in the field without the need for extensive knowledge of scheduling concepts or training.

(CSC-3148) Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Applied to the Implementation of a Full Project Controls System

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Ernesto Toxqui Damián, EVP

Abstract:

With all the jargon in the Information Technology area plus the government, standards, best practices and contractual obligations, globalization and internally the organization of the company, the implementation of a Project Controls System is a joint effort that requires several professionals in technical and business areas, external and within the company.

The proposed paper is an analogy of how the most fundamental needs are at the bottom and scales up to achieve quick, visible wins while building the full system.

The results of this paper come from the experience of the author, working in different global industries, using different models, working in a Project Controls Service environment with different technologies by subtracting the common needs -and struggles- and finding the right sequence and elements that leads to a successful implementation.

(CSC-3156) Integrated Project Control System Based on EVM Methodologies: A Case History

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Massimoluigi Casinelli, PE CCP

Abstract:

The paper describes the implementation of an integrated project control system on behalf of a public Owner in Italy, committed to the project management of a capital investment of 2.0 Billions (circa) of Euros regarding an infrastructure programme. The author leaded as project manager the multidisciplinary consulting group on behalf of JV Lotti Associati- Ramboll Denmark- Casinelli Associates, who has been awarded the consulting project; the author also designed CAPITOLO, the software used for the implementation of the project controls system. 

Project progress data are collected and transferred a logical structure (i.e. CBS) to budgeting and financial enterprise system through a specific interface that connects the two SW package (project control and ERP). The implementation has been o implement this

Application

The project executed confirmed that the prime criticality stands on the whole design of the system and particularly on the organizations issues; both these qualities need be translated on contractual languages, as the capabilities of the project controls system require to adopt procedures that guarantee the right flow of information and reliable data from contractors involved in the programme. Also, training on project control methodologies is essential to get a full capacity of reading progress data and evaluate project performance.

Results, observations, and conclusions

EV methodologies, to be well implemented, need to be tailored to the specific context of the contract and organizations involved.  The fulcrum of the project control system stands on a software package (CAPITOLO) which read Primavera data provided by contractors and interfaces with ERP system of the company.

WBS and CBS play a basic role in the effectiveness of the system; planning and scheduling specifications procedures, also are critical as they guarantee proper and realistic data regarding projects progress.

(CSC-3188) Introduction of an Effective Leading KPI: Contractor Profitability Trend

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Babak Nikpour; Emad Mofarej Kouchaki, CCP PSP

Abstract:

Measuring project performance is one of the most common challenges of the client’s representatives. Although there is no shortage of project Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), most of these KPIs compare the contractor’s past performance against the approved baselines. This retrospective approach is mainly focused on the effect, or undesirable performance and not the underlying cause hence alarms when it is too late to mitigate the risk.

Contractors Profit margin is one of the most common factors that contribute to the project health, ironically, it is also one of the most neglected Key Performance Indicators. This paper provides guidance to the owners to measure Contractor’s Profitability Trend in an effective and practical way. Visualizing and analyzing this trend provides a valuable early warning while other available KPIs are lagging.  This process has been successfully implemented on multiple projects, and this paper will include a case study of monitoring the Contractor’s Profitability Trend in a gas refinery lump sum project.

(CSC-3199) MS100 Modular Reporting Methodology - Project Level

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Aditya Arya, PSP

Abstract:

MS100 Modular Reporting Methodology - Project Level "MS 100 Modular Reporting Methodology - Project Level” is a new methodology for schedule & cost reporting at project level.

• This methodology brings data and data structure centric approach to Project Controls.

• The primary enablers of this methodology are standardization of data, modular structure of data, and replication of data.

• One of the features of this methodology - a set of predefined specialized reporting milestones are embedded in distinct schedule WBS elements at project level.

• Throughout the schedule WBS, parent-child relationships are maintained between WBS elements (headings), and their WBS sub-elements (headings) using these specialized reporting milestones. Hence the concept of "modular". In theory, as well as in practice, an infinite number of modules can be assembled together to form “parent modules”, and so forth.

• An advantage of this methodology - it merges index and metric functionality for reporting at project level.

The methodology initiates a new methodical approach to providing Activity IDs to milestones. These Activity IDs are standardized. The objective is to create a set of specialized milestones which could be utilized industry wide as “standard indices” for reporting at project level. For example, MS1 represents Project Start, MS100 represents Project Finish.

• This methodology readily provides data for benchmarking, trend analysis, comparison of project progress for programs/ portfolios.

• This methodology undertakes a lean approach to the forensic scheduling/ construction dispute resolution process.

• This methodology provides project progress in predefined ‘steps’ -  simplifying executive reporting.

(CSC-3203) Construction Project Cost Forecasting - Back to Basics

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Moses Y. Nkuah, CCP EVP

Abstract:

The success of any construction project is assessed by how well its final outcome achieves project objectives within budget and schedule to satisfy the stakeholder. The project team’s ability to reliably forecast the cost at any point in time is paramount to meeting the budget expectations. As a cost forecast, by definition, is the prediction of the final cost of the project based on current status and trends, it includes both objective and subjective elements. Therefore, risk and uncertainty are central to any construction project cost forecasting, and usually there will be some variance between the final project actual and forecast costs. The aim of the project team in the cost forecasting process is to minimize this variance as much as possible. The purpose of this paper is to examine some of the forecasting techniques that can be applied on a construction project to produce a reliable projected final cost.

(CSC-3211) Cost Loading and Schedule Tracking

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Abbas S. Saifi

Abstract:

As projects have evolved through its time, almost all P3 (Public Private Partnership) projects have a contractual obligation to cost load the schedule and track the schedule variance and monitor the schedule performance through cost and time. Contractors are bounded by the contract to include the budgeted / planned cost in the schedule. However as the project progresses, there will be a cost creep which may not be a result of a scope creep. This paper sheds light on how to successfully cost load the schedule and track the cost variance, to allow for the cost creep in the schedule and perform the schedule health check.

(CSC-3213) Causes and Impacts of Delay in Construction Project in Saudi Arabia

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Mossab Abbas Elkhidir, Jr. CCP

Abstract:

This survey on causes and impacts of delay on Saudi Arabia for different types of construction projects was collected from 155 respondents (88 contractors, 42 consultants and 25 clients) with 33 causes and 6 impacts. The results of the study indicate that there are three main causes of delays in construction projects: poor project scheduling and planning from the contractor’s side, inability of the contractor to implement financial planning and lack of supervision and monitoring on site by the contractor. Consequently, these delays are responsible for affecting the parameters of costs and time in construction projects substantially. The survey also explained that there are high correlation between the client and consultant causes and weak correlation between client and contractor causes. And there is different correlation which is considered a huge correlation between contractor causes and the impacts. The survey also explained that 19.0% of the project in Saudi Arabia considered to be delayed and 19.2% considered to be over budget.

(CSC-3223) Generating Value from Project Data – A Guide for Designing Your WBS and Data Structures

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Laurie S. Bowman, CCP DRMP EVP PSP

Abstract:

The Workbreakdown structure is used to convey information to many stakeholders on a project yet the functional requirements of a WBS are often misunderstood. Thoughtful design of the WBS structure can bring great benefits to project performance and communication with stakeholders including;

-Improved strategic analysis of performance at portfolio and program level.

- Improved modelling and appreciation of risk.

-Enhanced communication between stakeholders as the WBS becomes a common language for describing scope and performance.

-Effective cost control, schedule control and resource management.

-Streamlined and standardised reporting for programs and projects.

- Reduced safety risk.

- Reduced costs associatd with quality problems.

-Improved integration and communication between owners and contractors or subcontractors.

-Modular schedule construction in a multiple project environment resulting in time saving

-Reduced administration and overhead costs

-Improved standardisation and timeliness of performance reports.

This paper will describe some of the important attributes to consider when designing a WBS and coding structure and the associated benefits that result for project planning, project performance management and estimating future projects. The paper will also describe some of the coding structures used on a project and provides some guiding principles. These principles help ensure that the WBS and other coding structures are established to optimise communication, performance management and estimating for future projects and reduce the risk of disputes between project owners and contractors.

(CSC-3253) A 3-Dimensional Project Controls Structure for the Planning and Scheduling of PETRONAS FLNG1 Project

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Suraini Husin

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present the multi facet dimensions of project controls which encompass; cost, time and resources to monitor the progress and performance of the PETRONAS Floating LNG-1 Project.  This paper covers the intent of establishing a three dimensional controls structure such as Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) and Organisation Breakdown Structure (OBS).  The mechanics and strategic linkages of these dimensional controls show the interdependencies between WBS, CBS and OBS as the project reached its lifecycle maturity.  The work breakdown structure and the work packages are used to organise both the estimates of project scope and the measures of progress and performance.  The cost breakdown structure derived from estimates prepared using all of the design and cost information available is tailored to meet the specific requirements of the project at that time. The organisation breakdown structure requires the information to be organised by project, geographical area, work type, resource utilization and responsibility.  As project owners now require project monitoring which uses integrated time and cost technique based on earned value concept in order to keep the investments on track, a 3-Dimensional (3-D) approach has been introduced. This 3-D approach to emphasize on the time, cost and resources when evaluating project progress and performance. Monitoring engineering, procurement and construction progress is the second key role of project control after planning. This includes measuring both actual progress and the resources utilized to achieve the progress. Comparison of these two measures against the project plan makes it a lot easier to establish the project status and area of concerns. The structure described has been implemented and has enabled the project to complete the many milestones along its journey to produce the first LNG drops from Floating LNG in December 2016

(CSC-3258) Project Astrology Framework: Project Horoscope or Project Management Horrorscope

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Sankar Subrahmaniyam, EVP

Abstract:

Astrology and projects have one thing in common, i.e., Prediction.  Astrology is the study of the movements and relative positions of celestial objects as a means for divining information about human affairs and terrestrial events.

In Projects, Project/Project Manager uses several measures that assist his or her efforts to meet  the program objectives.   These measures provide a comparison of current program status against the planned measures.  Though EVM is powerful project management control  technique and  the indicators give reasonably accurate early warning, EVM as a management technique should be supplemented with additional measures for comprehensive understanding of  project performance. These additional measures and metrics can provide valuable predictive indicators that can be used to develop and implement effective mitigation plans.

The paper will introduce few predictive measures in addition to EVM metrics and a framework.  The  relative position of indicators vs  EVM metrics give very powerful insight into performance of the project in past and present and help predicting the future.  This method of prediction and insight into a project has been termed as “Project Management Astrology”

The participants will be introduced to various measures such as Schedule metrics,  cost metrics, staffing metrics, Risk and Opportunity metrics, technical performance measures, Contract Health metrics, Supply chain metrics etc.

(CSC-3282) A Tracking Model to Manage ETC on T&M Contracts

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Sunny Goklani

Abstract:

As an owner or a prime contractor, Time and Material contracts (where resources (labor, material, or both) are provided by the subcontractor at pre-defined rates) present a substantial risk wrt how the ETC for the contract is forecasted and whether it is designed to accurately evolve to reflect actual performance while the project is underway. A NTE amount or a starting estimate is never enough as many variables continue to evolve, including the scope itself, the nature of work, schedule deviations, productivity rates, unit rates, fixed expenses, etc.

Derived from learnings of its actual application on a ~$200 Mil+ project, this paper presents an Excel based T&M Tracking Model (developed by the author), which in its entirety, covers all variables affecting EAC. It consists of 3 modules: 1) Baseline tracking (input factors+assumptions), 2) Contract Mgmt (PTD Productivity+ETC Calculator) and 3) Change analysis (analyzing variances: Scope changes vs performance changes).

The paper will thus establish a best practice of: i) establishing a baseline T&M plan, ii) method of tracking productivity and derived forecast of remaining scope, and iii) Analyzing and understanding T&M variances led by drivers in control of different parties.

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