Technical Program Abstracts

(ADV) Adverse Conditions


(ADV-3084) Rainfall Statistical Analysis for Calendar Definition: A Case Study of a Malaysian Megaproject

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Ricardo Goncalves Alves


This paper focuses in the process and techniques used to develop the baseline calendars for the construction of a US$1.3 billion iron ore distribution center in Malaysia. The annual rainfall at project location, a tropical area in the Strait of Malacca, may exceed 2200mm.

After discussions with experts and local contractors, supported by a soil permeability investigation, the project team has decided to adopt an statistical rainfall analysis to support the calendar definition. The rainfall data from past 50 years was gathered with Malaysian Weather Authority, from which the 10 previous years were used in the statistical modeling.

The applicability in terms of rainfall was assessed for four different types of services: ‘Civil Infrastructure/Earthworks’, ‘Civil Foundation Works’, ‘Civil Superstructure’ and ‘Electromechanical Erection’. Maximum rainfall criteria was defined taking in consideration not only the direct rainfall of a given day, but also the sum of the two previous days. If the criteria is accepted, the day is considered “Feasible”.  The findings were pulled together in functional calendars and loaded in Primavera P6.

A comprehensive conclusion is offered highlighting the benefits of adopting a systemic approach in the definition of calendars, especially when dealing with specific conditions such as an above average rainfall.  The limitations of the work are presented, as well as a set of recommendation for future enhancements in the process.

(ADV-3238) What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Author(s)/Presenter(s): Gary E. Chase; Victoria A. Flores


Nearly every project, the world over, has experienced adverse conditions. All of these projects have either succumbed or worked through some incredible difficulties. What are some typical and not-so-typical adverse conditions and how does one prepare to meet the risks associated with the nearly impossible task of being completely prepared? The project may survive and indeed thrive in spite of Murphy's Law ("Anything that can go wrong will go wrong") and those inevitable mistakes. History provides many examples of adverse situations in the many facets of construction projects; Big Bertha in Seattle, Dubai Marina waterfront cofferdam collapse, Boston Tunnel falling tile, Pentagon roof fire, and many more.

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