A2: Project Risk Quantification
Friday - Saturday, June 26-27, 2020 (2 FULL DAYS)
Instructor: John Hollmann, PE CCP CEP DRMP
John Hollmann, PE CCP CEP DRMP is an industry expert, author, leader and presenter in the Cost Engineering/Risk Management profession for the process industries (e.g., oil & gas, chemicals, mining, metals) as well as infrastructure (e.g., transport, utilities, pipeline, etc.). John has managed a benchmarking consortia, managed cost engineering/project control/risk research and development projects, and has conducted numerous project estimate reviews and risk analyses for strategic projects. John has been very active in AACE International (including leading development of the DRMP exam) and received the Lifetime Achievement Award in 2018. John has over forty years of engineering, project control, estimating, risk analysis, benchmarking, research and consulting experience in the process and infrastructure industries in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. His book “Project Risk Quantification”, around which the seminar is aligned, was published in 2016.
The course starts with learning the basics of risk management (RM) and dealing with uncertainty in investment and bid decisions and project control (i.e. the context.) Fundamentals such as terminology and statistics are covered. Attendees will then learn how to elicit information about risks and use it to perform integrated, probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis for contingency, reserves and escalation in a step-by-step manner in accordance with the text (“Project Risk Quantification”) including exercises to reinforce the lessons. The content is consistent with AACE Recommended Practices where applicable. Quantification at different project phases is covered, including capturing historical data to improve future risk analyses. In addition, the attendees will learn about landmark empirical research, example cases, tips and rules-of-thumb and watch-outs. Attendees will also be provided with practice guidelines, tools and templates to help put the practices into action at their workplace.
DAY ONE: INTRODUCTION, BACKGROUND AND BASICS
- Introduction to Project Risk Management and Risk Quantification (PRQ) – 2 hours
Why These PRQ Methods? Industry Research
Speaking the Language: PRQ Terminology
- Need-to-Know for PRQ: Probability and Statistics – 1 hour
- Where to Apply Risk Quantification in TCM – 1 hour
Phase-Gate Processes and Classification
Investment/Bidding Decision Making Process
- Setting the Stage for Risk Quantification: – 1 hour
Planning the Control Base (and Bias) considering PRQ
Project Historical Data; Closeout with PRQ in Mind
- Introduction of the PRQ Process: – 1 hour
DAY TWO: METHODS & APPLICATION
Systemic Risks & Parametric Modeling (w/exercise)
Project-Specific Risks & Expected Value w/MCS (w/exercises)
- Methods-Extended– 3 hours
Project-Specific Risks & CPM (w/example)
Escalation and Exchange (w/example)
Program and Portfolio Analysis (w/exercise)
Tipping Point Analysis (w/example)
$1,300 member / $1,450 non-member
*Add $100 if you are not staying at the host hotel. Book your room before registering for the seminar to lock-in the rate listed above.
**Add $100 for on-site registration.